Working Papers

Why is Entrepreneurial Overconfidence (so) Persistent?
(with Maclean Gaulin and Nathan Seegert)

(Under Revision)
Tagline: We conduct a year-long RCT across 1,000 entrepreneurs to show how scientific learning can de-bias overconfidence.

Technological Uniqueness and Firm Performance
(with Yang Fan, Lubomir Litov and Todd Zenger) | (Online Appendix)

(Under Review)
Tagline: More technologically uniqueness causes better firm performance, but also reduces benefits from technology spillovers and makes equity valuation harder.

A Scientific Approach to Business Strategy
(with Nick Bloom, Michael Christensen, Raffaella Sadun and Jan Rivkin)

(Resubmitted, Management Science)
Tagline: We measure scientific Strategy Practices beyond samples of entrepreneurial ventures and show that CEOs with more scientific practices outperform.

Data in Action: Data-Driven Decision Making in U.S. Manufacturing
(with Kristina McElheran and Erik Brynjolfsson) 

(Revise and Resubmit, Management Science)
Tagline: We provide large-sample evidence for the importance of Data-Driven Decision Making practices for productivity in US manufacturing.

Leadership Vacillation
(with James Yen, Jackson Nickerson and Todd Zenger) 

(Revise and Resubmit, Strategic Management Journal)
Tagline: Corporations perform better in the long run if they dynamically vacillate between CEOs that specialize in either growth or profitability at a time.

Competitive Differentiation Effects of Board Network Distance
(with Yang Fan) | (Online Appendix)

(Resubmitted, Review of Finance)
Tagline: Closer connections of corporations through directors leads to more competitive differentiation.

Managerial Overconfidence and Dynamic Strategy-Structure (Mis-)Fit

(Under Revision)
Tagline: :
Overconfident managers increase strategy-structure misalignment in response to competitive shocks.

Sources of Firm Life-Cycle Dynamics: Age vs Size Effects
(with Lorenz Kueng and Bryan Hong) 

(Reject and Resubmit: Journal of Finance)
Tagline: Life-cycle growth dynamics of firms are driven by growth of startups and not by age effects.


COVID-19 Work

Doing Good rather than Doing Well: What stimulates Personal Data Sharing and Why? 
(with Mac Gaulin, Nate Seegert, Steven Alder, Adam Looney)


(Under Revision)
Tagline::
Using a sequence of RCTs we show that image motivation and identity are an order of magnitude more effective to stimulate personal data sharing than incentives.

Information Revelation of Decentralized Crisis Management: Evidence from Natural Experiments on Mask Mandates
(with Mac Gaulin, Francisco Navarro-Sanchez and Nate Seegert)

  • Pivotal in convincing the Utah state legislature to leave state-wide mask mandates in place in fall 2020.
  • Media coverage: The Washington Post, Forbes and CBS

(Under Revision)
Tagline
:
Mask mandates reduce confirmed cases and can increase economic activity—if they are enforced at a state rather than county level.

What Drives the Effectiveness of Social Distancing in Combating COVID-19 across U.S. States?
(with Mac Gaulin, Nate Seegert and Adam Looney)

(Revise and Resubmit, PLOS One)
Tagline:
Using structural estimation and Machine learning, we show that voluntary social distancing has saved more lives, but lockdowns are a more efficient tool to mitigate COVID-19.